EPL Title Race: Does Christmas No. 1 guarantee an EPL Title?
EPL Title Race: The English Premier League (EPL) is the most popular football league in Europe. It is the busiest league during the Christmas season. Historically most of the teams that end up winning the English Premier League title were leading at the end of the Christmas period (End of the Year). So, is it Important to be Christmas Top 3? Let’s have a look at what the statistics show.
English Premier League Champions
The EPL has been played for 29 complete seasons. This season (2021/2022) is the 30th season. So far 7 Football clubs have won the title with Manchester United holding the record of most titles. Manchester united have won the EPL a record 13 times, being the only club to have won with double digits times.
Manchester United – 13 Times
Chelsea – 5 Times
Manchester City – 5 Times
Arsenal – 3 Times
Blackburn Rovers – 1 Time
Leicester City – 1 Time
Liverpool – 1 Time
Champions position at the end of the Christmas period.
From the data below, most of the teams that have won the EPL title were in the top 3 positions at the end of the Christmas season (End of the Year). There are two outliers to this and we shall look at them in details. The number of times the champions were in 1st position after the Christmas period is 15 times. Times won when in 2nd position are 9 times and in 3rd position are 3 times. This implies that the chances of becoming champions while in top 3 after Christmas period is 93.1%. The Chances are so high which almost guarantees a title. The Chances of becoming champions while at position 6 is 3.4% (only done once). For position 8 the chances are 3.4% (only Done once).
English Premier League Champions
| EPL SEASON | CHAMPIONS | POSITION END OF CHRISTMAS (END OF YEAR) |
| 1992/1993 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 2ND |
| 1993/1994 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 1ST |
| 1994/1995 | BLACKBURN ROVERS | 1ST |
| 1995/1996 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 2ND |
| 1996/1997 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 2ND |
| 1997/1998 | ARSENAL | 6TH |
| 1998/1999 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 3RD |
| 1999/2000 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 2ND |
| 2000/2001 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 1ST |
| 2001/2002 | ARSENAL | 1ST |
| 2002/2003 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 3RD |
| 2003/2004 | ARSENAL | 2ND |
| 2004/2005 | CHELSEA | 1ST |
| 2005/2006 | CHELSEA | 1ST |
| 2006/2007 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 1ST |
| 2007/2008 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 2ND |
| 2008/2009 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 3RD |
| 2009/2010 | CHELSEA | 1ST |
| 2010/2011 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 1ST |
| 2011/2012 | MANCHESTER CITY | 1ST |
| 2012/2013 | MANCHESTER UNITED | 1ST |
| 2013/2014 | MANCHESTER CITY | 2ND |
| 2014/2015 | CHELSEA | 1ST |
| 2015/2016 | LEICESTER CITY | 2ND |
| 2016/2017 | CHELSEA | 1ST |
| 2017/2018 | MANCHESTER CITY | 1ST |
| 2018/2019 | MANCHESTER CITY | 2ND |
| 2019/2020 | LIVERPOOL | 1ST |
| 2020/2021 | MANCHESTER CITY | 8TH |
| 2021/2022 | ? | ? |
Details of the 3.4% Chance (Rare Chances)
The teams that have won the EPL despite not being in the top 3 position after Christmas Period are only two i.e., Arsenal and Manchester City.
Arsenal Champions 1997/1998
Arsenal won the EPL title in the season above despite being position 6 at the end of the Christmas Period (End of the Year). They were at position 6 with 34 points having played 20 games. Manchester United were leading the table with 46 points from 21 games. Arsenal won the title that season with 78 points while Manchester United were the runners up with 77 points. This was indeed a rare occasion, despite trailing with 12 points at the end of the Christmas period they became Champions of the season.
Manchester City Champions 2020/2021
This was another rare moment but let’s look at it in details. It’s important to note that the EPL had its fair share of challenges during this season 2020/2021 as a result of the COVID –19 Pandemic. The challenges included postponing of matches, matches being played without fans, among other challenges. Manchester City was in 8th Position having played 14 games with 26 points. They had the same points with 4 other teams who were on top of them in the league standings. Liverpool were the table leaders with 33 points having played 16 games. Manchester City was trailing with 7 points; however, they had two games at hand (which they won). Essentially Manchester City would have been at either position 2 or 3.
This implies that there has only been one team in the Premier League history to beat the odds (Is it Important to be Christmas Top 3 for EPL Title Race?). In conclusion, the chances of becoming EPL champions are extremely high (96.5%) when you are in top 3 position at the end of the year.
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